College football betting: How to bet Miami-South Florida - ESPN

South Florida is all the buzz entering an all-Florida clash at Miami this weekend, starting 2-0 with upset wins over ranked teams.

On paper it looks like one of the best starts in program history. But box scores do not always tell the full story.

There is more beneath the surface of these first two wins, and what it reveals could completely change how you see this team heading to play the Hurricanes.

No. 18 South Florida Bulls at No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, The CW Network

Line: Miami -17.5
Money line: Miami (-800), South Florida (+500)
Over/Under: 56.5 (O -105, U -115)

USF is 2-0 with upset wins over No. 25 Boise State and No. 13 Florida, but the start looks better on paper than it really is. The Bulls have been living off big plays, turnovers and opponent mistakes more than consistent, sustainable football.

Against Boise, USF won 34-7, but the box score tells a different story. Boise actually had more first downs and controlled time of possession. They moved the ball well but lost three fumbles that killed scoring chances.

USF hit a few explosive passes, averaging over 10 yards per attempt, but only managed 15 first downs on 372 total yards. To me, that says the Bulls are relying on a handful of big plays to put points on the board, and when those plays are not there, they struggle to sustain drives and keep the offense moving.

Florida was the same story in a different way. USF pulled out an 18-16 win, but Florida hurt itself with 11 penalties, a key interception and missed opportunities in the red zone. Across both games, USF has forced four turnovers but has scored zero points off them, which says a lot about their offensive struggles.

The numbers support it. USF struggles to sustain drives, has