Week 5 best bets: How to bet Kentucky-South Carolina, Hawai'i-Air Force and more - ESPN
Last week, everything clicked. The reads were sharp, the picks landed and it all came together. Which is exactly why this week, I'm preparing for the swing back. That's the reality of betting: You enjoy the wins, but you never settle into them.
Week 5 brings four matchups on my card: Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Air Force Falcons, Tulsa Golden Hurricane at home against the Tulane Green Wave, Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Southern Miss Golden Eagles, and Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks.
Each has its own story, its own wrinkle and yes, you might notice something. In three games I've listed the money line as an option, and in one, I haven't. That's intentional, so keep an eye on all my written content.
All odds by ESPN BET
Pick: Hawai'i +6.5
This opened at +4 and was pushed to almost a touchdown. This type of line move creates opportunity.
The market is reacting to Air Force's explosive run game against Hawai'i's weak front, and it is true that the Falcons are one of the most efficient rushing teams in the country. They can put up yards in a hurry, and they score in bunches. Hawai'i's defense is soft against the run, but it has one of the best secondaries in the Mountain West. The Rainbow Warriors can defend the pass, force opponents into field goals in the red zone and make teams play long drives. That matters against an Air Force team that has been more explosive through the air than usual.
Hawai'i's offense matches up directly with Air Force's weakness. The Falcons are dead last in coverage and do not generate takeaways. That makes Hawai'i's turnover issues look worse on paper than in reality. Five of their giveaways came in one game against Arizona, and 24 of Arizona's 40 points came directly off those