College Football Playoff 2025: Bubble watch after Week 5 - ESPN

With one double-overtime loss to Oregon on Saturday, Penn State dropped out of the latest College Football Playoff projection, landing in the dreaded No. 12 spot, where it would be replaced by the fourth and fifth conference champions.

The Nittany Lions are now officially on the bubble — and under pressure to win at Ohio State on Nov. 1.

Below you'll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We've also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week's top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee's ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

This week, we added a fourth category: On the cusp. These are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket.

The 13-member selection committee doesn't always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group's tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers dropped out of the top 12 projection following their loss to Ole Miss because they didn't look like a playoff team: 2-of-11 on third downs, 59 rushing yards, seven penalties and one turnover. The LSU defense allowed 13 explosive plays, its most in a single game since the 2024 season opener against USC.