2023 NBA Playoffs betting trends for Eastern and Western Conference Finals - ESPN

The 2023 postseason has been one of the most unpredictable playoffs in recent memory. The Heat, Nuggets and Lakers all pulled off series upsets in the Conference Semifinals. The six series upsets so far this postseason are the most through two rounds in over 35 seasons according to SportsOddsHistory.com.

However, the Conference Finals have typically yielded expected results. Favorites are 18-2 in Conference Finals series in the past ten seasons. The two upsets were by the 2020 Miami Heat (+110 vs Boston Celtics) and 2019 Toronto Raptors (+230 vs Milwaukee Bucks). A Heat upset (+400) would be the largest Conference Finals upset since 2009 when the Orlando Magic (+550) beat the Cleveland Cavaliers.

While the series have resulted in upsets, favorites have still covered at a 61% rate, going 40-26-1. That's the second-highest rate through two rounds in the last decade behind 2020-21.

Home teams have also been successful, going 40-27-1 ATS, the best mark through two rounds since 2007-08. They are 11-1 ATS in Game 2 and 9-2-1 ATS in Game 3. Over the last three postseasons, home teams are 35-7 ATS in Game 2, including 16-2 ATS when trailing the series 1-0.

No teams have been better at home this postseason than the Lakers and Nuggets, which are a combined 12-0 outright and 11-1 ATS.

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Historic series odds from SportsOddsHistory.com.

Los Angeles Lakers (+145) at Denver Nuggets (-170)

This is the first time LeBron James has been an underdog in three straight playoff series. He is now 6-7 in playoff series where his team enters as an underdog.

LeBron's teams had been favored in 10 of their first 11 Conference Finals series, with the only exception being the first time he reached that round in 2007 with