2023 NBA playoffs - Odds, picks, betting tips for Celtics-Heat Game 5 - ESPN

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Thursday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

Oddsmakers appear bullish on the Boston Celtics' prospects at home this evening. Despite being down 3-1 to the Miami Heat, the Celtics are favored by at least eight points tonight on most books.

One key angle baked into this sizable spread is the fact Boston claimed the best first-half net rating in the NBA this season (+9.2). This early dominance has also surfaced in the playoffs, with the Celtics nearing a 13-point first-half net rating at home through three series. We should know pretty early on if Boston is ready to extend this series to six games.

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From a fantasy lens, my projections like Grant Williams and his recent surge in minutes and 3-point volume. There is also more scoring responsibility placed on Derrick White and Jaylen Brown in the wake of Malcolm Brogdon's apparent injury to his shooting hand. For Miami, Jimmy Butler remains the chalk play, but for good reason given he's topped a 30% usage rate in all but one game this series.

— Jim McCormick

Miami Heat at Boston CelticsGame 5: 8:30 p.m. ET, Heat lead series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread) Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3) Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)

Line: Celtics (-8.5) Total: 215.5BPI Projection: Celtics by 9.4Money Line: Heat (+250), Celtics (-320)

Injury Report: Heat: Gabe Vincent, (GTD —