2023 NBA playoffs - Odds, picks, betting tips for Lakers-Nuggets Game 3 - ESPN

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Thursday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

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Teams that win the first two games of a seven-game NBA playoff series at home go on to win that series roughly 94% of the time. Such precedent puts real pressure on the Los Angeles Lakers to defy the odds, which begins with holding court tonight in California as fairly sizable favorites (5.5 points) against the Denver Nuggets.

While Anthony Davis struggled from the floor in Game 2's loss in Denver, my model likes him to soar past 50 DraftKings points this evening. It's not just his fantasy floor that looks good, as only Nikola Jokic claims a higher ceiling in both tonight's game and any slate that includes the player pool for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Teammate Austin Reaves has had arguably the most profitable playoffs of all as he heads into an enriching free-agency window. Reaves has scored at least 22 points in both games of this series so far, and his passing prowess and relatively elite shooting results have driven strong DFS value. Eyeing him for scoring and shooting props can also prove rewarding.

Beyond Jokic being a staple in DFS lineups and for triple-double props, it's still Jamal Murray that surfaces as a savvy start per my model. After all, he's averaging a robust 61 fantasy points in this series against a Lakers team that lacks