Kyiv reacted to Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian regions by announcing a surprise, fast-tracked bid to join the NATO military alliance.
Existing members Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro and North Macedonia back the bid.But, tellingly, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg shied away from supporting it, while US security adviser Jake Sullivan said the application should be postponed.Here are five reasons why Ukraine is unlikely to be joining NATO any time soon.Being at war complicates the picture.
Under Article 5 of NATO’s collective defence agreement, if one member state is attacked all the others must consider this an attack on themselves and come to their ally's aid.
What this means is that if Ukraine joined NATO while still at war with Russia, Article 5 would be triggered. “There are escalatory risks in making Ukraine a member,” said John Williams, a professor at Durham University who specialises in international politics, war and sovereignty, warning it could lead to a "nightmare scenario". “NATO would [be] pitched more clearly into the war in a much more direct way,” he continued, meaning other members that border Russia, such as the Baltic States and Poland, could “potentially become a frontline”.As Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership applications have advanced, Putin has threatened to respond in kind, should NATO deploy troops and infrastructure there.But this current reluctance did not mean permanently shutting the door to Ukraine.