Some weeks are about just one game that grabs you, but Week 8 is a bit of a buffet. There are lines that overreacted, totals that haven't caught up and matchups that look nothing like what the market thinks they are.
We've got Hawai'i finding its rhythm, a total begging to go over in Logan, a trench war in Columbia, a live dog in Boise and a Texas Tech defense that (still) might be the best-kept secret in college football.
Five games, five stories, each wager backed by form, data and a little gut instinct. Let's have a good week.
All odds by ESPN BET
Pick: Hawai'i +115
The market move from Colorado State -1.5 to -2.5 feels reactionary after the Rams crushed Fresno State (the same opponent Hawai'i lost to), but the result was built on turnover luck and fluky short fields, rather than execution. Fresno State still had 469 total yards — 350 through the air — and three giveaways that flipped the score.
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Perception does not equate predictive value.
Meanwhile, Hawai'i has leveled up with back-to-back wins over Air Force and Utah State with 44 points in each, more than 530 yards per game and only one total turnover in those two weeks. The offense finally looks as if it has clicked. Micah Alejado has settled in, completing over 65% of his passes, while that coverage unit ranks in top 30 in the FBS.
Colorado State's defense sits in the bottom 15 in coverage with a bottom-five pass rush, which is exactly where Hawai'i can attack. The Rams simply can't generate heat.
The Rainbow Warriors are in form, efficient and finally protecting the football. If you like insurance, grab the +2.5, but I'm fading the overreaction and playing the +115
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