Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space — find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let's dive in to Week 13. Odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook and subject to change.
Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.
Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Houston Texans cover +4.5 (-115) at Indianapolis Colts
Bowen: Let's bet on the Houston defensive front to disrupt the timing and rhythm of Daniel Jones. When pressured this season, Jones' off-target rate jumps to 25%. And we saw what this Texans pass rush did to Josh Allen in Week 12 (eight sacks). Plus, with the return of starting quarterback C.J. Stroud, Houston gets a boost on offense, too. The Texans cover, and I think they can win outright.
Denver Broncos cover -6 (-110) at Washington Commanders
Bowen: With the Broncos coming off the bye week, I like Sean Payton's offense versus a Washington defensive unit that is giving up a league-worst 6.3 yards per play. This should be a heavily-schemed game plan for quarterback Bo Nix, with
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