Super Bowl picks lose in Week 9: Chiefs, Colts, Packers, Lions - ESPN

Just when we were beginning to confidently pick the real Super Bowl contenders, Week 9 shuffled the top of the NFL's deck.

Four of the five favorites to win this season's title by ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) lost on Sunday. The only team in the top five to make it through the weekend unscathed was the Eagles — who were on bye. And after Sunday's series of upsets, each team has at least two losses on its record by Week 9. That has happened only one other time in the past 35 years, a 2010 season where the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers finished the regular season as the sixth seed in the NFC.

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I'm going to break down those four Super Bowl contenders — the Chiefs, Colts, Packers and Lions — who lost in Week 9, including what happened and whether it's something to be concerned about moving forward. Were these momentary missteps? Or is the race to the Lombardi Trophy as wide open as records around the league indicate?

Let's start with the latest matchup between the class of the AFC, where the Bills held serve on the Chiefs in the regular season for another year. (I included FPI chances to win the Super Bowl for each team both before and after their Week 9 losses.)

Jump to:
Chiefs | Colts | Packers | Lions

Week 9 result: Lost 28-21 to the Buffalo Bills
Chances to win the Super Bowl before Week 9: 15.2%
Chances to win the Super Bowl after Week 9: 11.1%

It's become a running gag. After earning the best one-score game record we've seen in a single season in 2024, the Chiefs have now lost all four of their games decided by seven or fewer points this season. Sunday's 28-21 loss to the Bills wasn't as close as the final score indicated, but after Buffalo's Matt Prater booted a 52-yard