NFL Week 4 odds and best bets for Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - ESPN

The Atlanta Falcons enter «Monday Night Football» feeling like they have a new lease on life.

After a disastrous first two weeks of the season with Cooper Rush starting at quarterback (with Michael Penix Jr. still recovering from ACL surgery and Tua Tagovailoa also injured), the Falcons looked like one of the worst teams in the league. But with Penix back in action in Week 3, the Falcons delivered a shocking 35-14 blowout of the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have plenty of their own problems offensively, but Penix played well (posting an 84.9 QBR) and the Falcons earned that win, giving them hope going forward.

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The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, sit at 1-2, but they were competitive in all three of the games they played. They lost to the Detroit Lions in overtime in Week 1, beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 and then lost a back-and-forth affair with the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3. QB Tyler Shough has delivered in key moments and ranks 15th in QBR so far, exceeding my expectations for him entering the season. The defense, however, has struggled. It ranks 28th in EPA per play, though perhaps part of that is because they have played against both the Lions and Ravens.

The sneaky unit to watch here is the Falcons defense. It ranks 10th in EPA per play, fifth in run stop win rate and third in pass rush win rate. This is a group that is, quietly, dramatically exceeding expectations and should be able to slow down the Saints' offense.

Another reason I believe that? The Saints have converted third and fourth downs at a 56% clip, third best in the NFL. Even if I feel reasonably good about the Saints offense this year, that's not a