NFL odds, best bets: Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers - ESPN

The vibes of the San Francisco 49ers and the Washington Commanders are very different entering their «Monday Night Football» matchup. The 49ers are 5-0, a record that includes wins over the rival superteam Los Angeles Rams and the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

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On the other end of the spectrum, the Commanders have spent eight days reliving the final minute of their overtime nightmare against the New York Giants, in which Jayden Daniels — seemingly unaware of the situation — let the clock run out with the team in field goal range. The result? A terrible-feeling tie.

On paper, the numbers match those feelings. The 49ers ranked third in both offensive EPA per play and defensive EPA per play entering Sunday's action, with the former fueled by MVP candidate Brock Purdy's stellar play. Washington, meanwhile, ranked 20th and 22nd on offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively. So it should be a lopsided game, except ...

Lost in the mayhem of that Commanders loss was a key factor that is critical to how we view this team moving forward: Daniels played great in his return from injury. His 80.7 QBR was the fifth best in Week 5, and the fact that he was uninhibited in running the football — he ran nine times for 103 yards — makes me even more bullish on Daniels going forward.

That's why if I've got to pick a side or team prop in this game, I would lean toward Commanders +7.5 and Commanders over 21.5 points.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Brock Purdy pass attempts OVER 30.5 (-121)

Walder: Purdy has been incredibly efficient this season, with an 85.8 QBR that easily leads the league. He's near the