NFL Week 3 betting tips - Five props that pop

Woof. Week 2 was a sweat-sesh that didn't pay out. Kudos to Nick Chubb for clearing the mark. Everyone else is on pause for the moment.

Let's right some ships (on the way to winning chips) in Week 3. Utilizing ESPN's metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I'm here to help you win in fantasy and at the books.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2, 45.5) at Tennessee TitansSunday, 1 p.m. ET, Nissan Stadium, Nashville

Pick: Derek Carr OVER 1.5 TDs (-117)

Davante Adams' westward move elevated Carr's fantasy profile, making the QB a darling value pick among drafters. Thus far, though, the result has been more womp-womp than woot-woot. I'd brace for more of the same and take the under on Carr finishing inside the top 10 FF players at the position. Facing a banged-up Titans squad on a short week, however, two tubs are within reach.

Given the current QB landscape… that's nothing to sneeze at.

Tennessee has allowed six TDs on 61 pass attempts. That's a rate of nearly 10%, which is almost double the league average (4.7%). That bodes well for Carr, as the Raiders have recorded a red zone passing rate of 72.2%. That's a 17% increase from last season (55.1%). Adding an elite talent like Adams figures to create such a spike.

Whether it's his mind-bending release or the ease with which he gains separation, Adams' presence is game-changing. But it's his dynamic after-the-catch ability (WR14 in 2021) that sets up particularly well for this specific matchup. The Titans have had trouble limiting YAC producers, allowing the sixth-most yards after the catch since the middle of 2021.

Obviously, Adams isn't the only Raider who's dangerous with the ball in his hands. Darren Waller and vertical threat Mack Hollins (who is also one of my