NFL Week 11 last-minute bets - Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds via ESPN BET.

Jordan Love over 19.5 completions (-118 at ESPN BET)

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It feels dangerous to take a completions over with the worst quarterback in the league in completion percentage and completion percentage over expectation from NFL Next Gen Stats. But Love has been better in recent weeks in those categories, and the Packers are more likely to be behind — and thus needing to pass — as an underdog. I forecast Love for 21.8 completions.

Sam Howell under 23.5 completions (-134)

My model forecasts Howell for just 20.9 completions. It's not really about Howell, who has been playing better (even taking fewer sacks!) lately. It's about the team he's playing against: the Giants, who are barely running a functional offense. The Commanders are one of the most passing teams in the NFL, but it's unlikely they would be in a game where they are up big, as the 8.5-point line suggests they likely will be.

Geno Smith over 32.5 pass attempts (-122)

I put Smith's mean pass attempts at 34.8, a pretty sizable gap from the line. The Seahawks are reasonably pass-heavy, ranking ninth in designed pass rate and eighth in designed pass rate when win probability is between 15% to 85%