NFL Week 12 last-minute bets - Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds via ESPN BET.

Lamar Jackson over 19.5 pass completions (+100 at ESPN BET)

The Ravens have the second-lowest designed pass play rate in the NFL (56%), but if we look only at situations where their win probability is between 15-85%, (i.e. the game remains in doubt) they are middle of the pack (62%). Baltimore is only 3.5-point favorites against the Chargers on the road here, so the blowout probability isn't that high. Thus, there should be more passing opportunities — and therefore more completions — against this bad Chargers secondary. I forecast Jackson for 20.8 completions.

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Jalen Hurts over 21.5 pass completions (-105)

Joshua Dobbs over 21.5 pass completions (+100)

Will Levis under 28.5 pass attempts (-105)

Levis has gone over this line in three of his four starts, but only one of those games was a win. Tennessee enters this game in the unusual situation of being a 3.5-point favorite. I expect a more conservative game plan if they get ahead against Bryce Young and co. My model puts Levis' attempts at an average of 27.5.

See also:

C.J. Stroud over 35.5 pass attempts (+105)

Josh Allen over 35.5 pass attempts (-120)

Justin Fields over 0.5 interceptions