NFL Week 13 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.

Odds via ESPN BET.

Sam Howell over 0.5 interceptions (-135 at ESPN BET)

Not too often is it worth it to pay this kind of price on an interception prop, but this is one situation where it makes sense: Howell has a higher-than-average pick rate (2.3%), his team is a heavy underdog and crucially — he's expected to throw a ton, with an attempts prop line of 38.5 at ESPN BET. Each of those pass attempts carries interception risk. My model shows a remarkable fair price of -182.

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Gardner Minshew over 0.5 interceptions (+110)

C.J. Stroud over 22.5 pass completions (-105)

As the Texans have gained confidence in C.J. Stroud, their willingness to let him sling it has increased. In Weeks 1-8 the Texans had the 30th-ranked designed pass rate (and designed pass rate on early downs, too) in the NFL. But over the last four weeks those ranks have jumped to seventh and ninth, respectively. My model puts Stroud at 23.3 completions against the Broncos — so only a small difference from the line, but I also think the model is underrating the recent reliance on Stroud.

See also:

Desmond Ridder over 16.5 completions (+110)

Will Levis under 31.5 pass attempts (-125)

We rode