NFL playoff picture tiers 2023: Projecting 32 teams in standings - ESPN

We're just over halfway through the 2023 NFL season, and fans are wondering whether their favorite team will make the playoffs. Sure, the standings tell us a lot, but they don't tell the whole story. Fluky wins, tough breaks, strength of schedule, tiebreakers, quarterback injuries — they all affect a team's chances at a playoff berth.

I've broken down all 32 teams into eight playoff tiers — from obvious Super Bowl contenders to the completely hopeless teams looking toward next season — based on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), future strength of schedule, past performance metrics, future lines and a touch of gut feel.

Teams are organized within each tier based on their chances to make the playoffs, which were updated after Sunday's games. Stats are updated through Thursday night's game, unless otherwise noted.

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Chances to make the playoffs: 99%
Chances to win the NFC East: 83%

The offense is humming and has shown its might through the air and on the ground at various points, and that has the Eagles not only thinking about making the playoffs but securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Their upcoming stretch — at Chiefs, vs. Bills, vs. 49ers and at Cowboys — will determine whether that becomes a reality.

Chances to make the playoffs: 99%
Chances to win the AFC West: 95%

There's a good side and a bad side to the Chiefs' No. 6 ranking in expected points added (EPA) per play despite having the best quarterback in the NFL. On the good side, it means the offense is still productive, but it also highlights how much Patrick Mahomes' pass-catchers