2023 NFL playoffs: Sorting six teams in NFC wild-card bracket - ESPN

The first five spots in the NFC playoff picture are basically settled. Barring something truly catastrophic, we know the 8-3 San Francisco 49ers and 8-3 Detroit Lions are getting into the NFL postseason, almost surely as division champs. The 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles and 8-3 Dallas Cowboys are getting in — one will be the NFC East champion, and the other will likely be the top wild-card team and 5-seed in the conference. Some team, by law, has to win the NFC South. Right now, that's the 5-6 Atlanta Falcons. That's five spots spoken for in the bracket.

The other two spots? Those are going down to the wire. There are six teams with a realistic chance of landing one of those two wild-card berths, with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) giving them somewhere between a 20% and 60% chance of playing postseason football. Each of these teams can look at their future schedule and plot out a believable path toward the playoffs.

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Let's take a look at those six teams and their chances of landing one of those two wild-card spots with six weeks of football to go. I'll provide the FPI projection for each team's chances of making it to the postseason and advancing, specifically, by earning a wild-card berth. Consider this a look at what has happened so far and a breakdown of what needs to happen for these teams to achieve their goal of advancing out of the regular season.

We'll go in order of the chances to make the playoffs, starting with a team in the NFC North:

Jump to a team:
Bucs | Packers | Rams
Saints | Seahawks | Vikings

Chances to make the playoffs: 58.5%
Chances of being a wild-card team: 46.9%

There are no half measures with the Vikings. After going 11-0 in games decided by eight points or