New Champions League rule gives a statistically unfair advantage to home teams

Some rules in sport baffle me but last week the NFL finally fixed what I believed was the stupidest rule of them all. I am referring to Rule 16, which is better known as “the one possession overtime rule”.

Prior to last week, if a post-season game was tied, it would go to overtime and following a coin toss to determine which team starts with possession of the football, Rule 16 would kick in. The rule was that if the team that possessed the football first scored a touchdown on their opening possession, then they would instantly win the game - without the opposing team ever getting the chance to reply.

Over the past decade, teams that had won the overtime coin toss in the post-season had 10 wins and 2 losses, with seven of those wins coming by scoring a touchdown on the opening possession. The stats backed up just how unfair the rule felt. However, following a 29-3 vote by team owners, the rule has been amended so that post-season games will still feature sudden death scoring, but both teams will get an opportunity to possess the ball.

The change feels like the UEFA’s scrapping of the away goals rule in their European competitions for this season. The away goal rule particularly irked people because it seemed extremely unfair that during extra-time in the knockout stages, visiting teams would benefit from an additional 30 minutes where their goals would effectively count as double.

Unlike in the NFL though, this rule change has made football statistically more unfair. A study by Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, a Professor at the London School of Economics, and a former director at Athletic Bilbao, looked at data from Champions League and Europa League games over the last 15 seasons; in which 61 knock-out ties went to extra time.