Mike Clay's NFL Betting Playbook for Week 14 - ESPN

Week 14 is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.

Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.

Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+110); Atlanta Falcons (-130)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 39.5
FPI favorite: Buccaneers by 0.8 (52.4% to win outright)

Projected Score: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 19

Bijan Robinson over 2.5 receptions (-143): Robinson has racked up 19-plus touches in three straight games. That includes five-plus targets and exactly three receptions in both of his past two games. Robinson had five games with at least four catches earlier this season and has now reached three receptions in seven out of 11 full games. This week, he'll face a Tampa Bay defense that is midpack in RB receptions allowed, but has surrendered an 82% catch rate to the position (seventh highest).

Over/Under: 38.8 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 52% (14th highest)

Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens -7.5
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: Los Angeles Rams (+320); Baltimore Ravens (-400)
Total: 39.5