Rams will outclass Saints in NFL Week 16

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Short weeks favor the better coaches because the sharper minds don’t need as much time to prepare. Or at least that’s my working theory for backing the Los Angeles Rams (7-7) when they host the New Orleans Saints (7-7) at SoFi Stadium for Thursday Night Football in Week 16. 

The Rams are 10-5 straight up (SU) and 9-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games on less than six days of rest since hiring head coach Sean McVay in 2017. Los Angeles has a +8.1 scoring margin and +5.5 spread differential in those games. 

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Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams celebrates with Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams during a game against the Washington Commanders at SoFi Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Ric Tapia/Getty Images)

Saints head coach Dennis Allen is 1-8 SU (-7.9 scoring margin) and 2-7 ATS (-5.2 spread differential) in those spots dating back to his days as the then-Oakland Raiders coach. Allen-led teams are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in Thursday games. This includes New Orleans’s 31-24 loss at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7. 

LAR usually turns it on at this time of the year. They are 19-11 SU and 21-9 ATS in regular-season games under McVay once December hits. As home favorites in that spot, Los Angeles is 7-2 SU and ATS with a +11.0 scoring margin. 

People are too low on the 2021 Super Bowl champs. Inpredictable.com says the market makes the Rams +0.5 points better than an average NFL. That ranks them ninth and +1.8 better than the Saints. Neither are accurate.

The Detroit Lions are the eighth-best team, +2.2 points better than LAR, and