Mike Clay's NFL Betting Playbook for Week 16 - ESPN

Week 16 is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.

Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.

Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET

Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-150); Pittsburgh Steelers (+130)
Total: 38.5; Opened: 39.5
FPI favorite: Bengals by 2.8 (58.5% to win outright)

Projected Score: Bengals 23, Steelers 20

Chase Brown under 2.5 receptions (-135): Brown's playing time has increased over the last two weeks and he has had exactly three receptions in both of those games. The rookie has run a total of 10 pass routes during the span and has caught all six of his targets. Both his route-to-target ratio and catch rate are unsustainable and, while it's possible his playing time increases, Joe Mixon remains the feature back. In fact, Brown fell from a 30% snap share in Week 14 to just 17% in Week 15. Pittsburgh, for their part, has surrendered the seventh-fewest RB receptions.

Buffalo Bills -12.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Saturday 8 p.m. ET

Money Line: Buffalo Bills (-800); Los Angeles Chargers