IPL: Is Winning The Toss Becoming Too Important?

In the trade-off between luck-versus-skill, has the element of luck in winning or losing the toss now become far too important? In the IPL, winning the toss and choosing to bat second, improves the chance of winning by as much as 40%. Of the 364 matches played in the IPL over the last 6 years, the team batting first won only 150 matches, while the team batting second won 214 matches.

Teams batting second have won more matches in recent times.

To start a match with a 40% higher chance of winning based on the pure luck of winning the toss goes against the basic tenet that cricket is primarily a game of skill. It is also clear that most captains who win the toss opt to bat second. Everyone now knows about "the-luck-of-the-toss".

Former Indian Cricketer Saba Karim says, "The trend is quite startling. It is similar to the national T20 trends. The emergence of strong power hitters has propelled the teams to rework their strategy. They feel if you have batters till No.5 or No.6, it is better to chase. In shorter formats, the teams batting second have more chance to pull off a win."

"The other important thing is the dew factor," says S Rajesh, Stats Editor of ESPNCricinfo. "If you are looking at the last few seasons particularly 2019 and 2021 there has been a distinct advantage for the team bowling first. For the first five, seven overs they can bowl with a drier ball."

The importance of the toss is reflected in the betting odds (in England) for each match: the odds of a team winning goes up by at least 10% if they win the toss. For example, if the chance of winning of Team A vs Team B, before the toss is: 55% : 45%, and Team B wins the toss, the odds change to 45% : 55%. Or, if the odds before the match are 65% : 35%, this