Fertility rates will see 'dramatic decline' with 97% of countries unable to sustain populations

An overwhelming majority of countries globally will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size by 2100, according to newly published research in The Lancet.

The latest projections further highlight a "dramatic decline" in global fertility throughout this century that experts said has both "potential pros and cons".

Researchers led by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the US found that three-quarters of countries will not have fertility rates high enough to sustain population size by 2050.

By 2100, they project that this will be the case in 97 per cent of countries, estimating that the global total fertility rate will drop from 2.23 births per female in her lifetime in 2021 to 1.68 in 2050 and 1.57 in 2100.

In developed countries, a rate of 2.1 births per person who could bear children over their lifetime is necessary to sustain population levels.

These projected rates do not "differ markedly" from the United Nations' population figures taking into account the margins of error, according to a comment attached to the study.

The UN said in 2022 that global fertility is projected to decline to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.

"The world's population is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100," according to the UN’s 2022 population prospects.

The projected fertility rates in Central, Eastern, and Western European countries are all below the global average estimated for 2050 and 2100, and are already lower than what is needed to sustain population growth.

The total fertility rate in Western Europe is projected to fall from 1.53 in 2021 to 1.44 in 2050 and 1.37 in 2100.

Italy, Spain, and Andorra