Euroviews. Can Europe both lead green shipping and derisk from China?

“I name you Laura Maersk!” On a sunny September day in Copenhagen last year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, baptised the brand-new green methanol-fueled ship of Danish logistics superpower Mærsk.

Some 24 of these boats have already been ordered by Mærsk alone, a small revolution by the European and global champion that has 730 ships ploughing the oceans and is ambitiously moving towards its own 2040 goal of carbon neutrality.

Green methanol is produced from biomass or captured carbon with renewable energy, making it a climate-friendly alternative to traditional fuel. A technical solution to a massive climate problem as shipping makes up almost 3% of global emissions, and a European company is in the lead. It sounds almost too good to be true.

And indeed, there is a snag: China.

The EU’s green ambitions clash with the simultaneous desire to de-risk from China. The aim is to avoid over-reliance on one supplier as previously with Russian gas, which proved a European strategic liability as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine drove home – even to reluctant German policymakers.

Putting all your eggs in one autocrat’s basket is not only naïve but also just bad economic policy. However, Europe risks making the same mistake again by supplanting its hydrocarbon reliance on Russia with a green dependency on China.

In solar power, the dominance of Chinese companies is already almost total, in the wind industry, six of the top ten global companies are now from China, and the European battery and electric vehicle industry is under enormous pressure from Chinese competitors.

For the Chinese leadership, green technologies are the vehicle to leapfrog to industrial leadership and dominate the international supply