Al-Assad's fall: A blow to Russia's influence and the shifting dynamics in Syria

Just weeks ago, Syrian rebels succeeded in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad's regime, putting an end to a 13-year-long war.

The long-standing ruler of Syria fled to Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin granted him asylum, marking a clear sign of Russia's diminishing influence in the region. The offensive was, among others, initiated by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Its leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani who was once the head of an al-Qaeda offshoot in Syria, now presents himself as a statesman advocating for pluralism and tolerance, engaging in talks with potential international partners, most recently Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

However, his transformation and shift in image have sparked scepticism both domestically and abroad, given his past.

Recently, for the first time in over a decade, a US delegation visited Syria to meet with al-Sharaa. Led by Barbara Leaf, Roger Carstens, and Daniel Rubinstein, the discussions were deemed productive. Still, Washington has tied any potential recognition of his government to tangible progress on minority protection, counterterrorism efforts, and inclusive governance.

Russia’s withdrawal from Syria played a crucial role in the collapse of the al-Assad regime. Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion article about how Ukrainian resistance against Russia, supported by US aid, weakened Moscow and ultimately contributed to the end of al-Assad’s rule.

Yermak argued that supporting Ukraine not only strengthens Europe’s security but also advances the US' global interests.

Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its third winter, has severely weakened the