49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl: Stat trends, game keys, predictions - ESPN

Super Bowl LVIII is here, with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs facing off in Las Vegas on Sunday night (6:30 p.m. ET on CBS). We dug deep into the matchup from both statistical and game-planning standpoints to see where each team has an edge.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder pored through the numbers to find five trends and potential questions based on what the stats say. He leaned heavily on advanced numbers, including data from NFL Next Gen Stats and ESPN's video tracking. Then NFL analyst Matt Bowen ran through each team's tape to identify five tendencies and advantages, factoring in personnel matchups, scheme and coaching approaches. And finally, Seth and Matt put all of that to use and each made two predictions for the Super Bowl.

Can the 49ers beat the Chiefs' press coverage? Will Kansas City eat up San Francisco's zone coverage? Here are 10 trends and tendencies to watch heading into the final game of the 2023 season — and what they might mean for the winner.

Note: All stats include both the regular season and playoffs unless otherwise stated.

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What the stats say | What the tape says
Predictions for Super Bowl LVIII

Does the Chiefs' press coverage play into the 49ers' hands?

The Chiefs use press coverage more than any team in the league, with both outside corners pressing on 42% of opponent dropbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats. No other team is over 35%. But that should suit the 49ers just fine.

San Francisco leads the NFL in estimated points added per dropback at 0.24 through the regular season and playoffs, and when facing press coverage from both outside corners, that number balloons all the way to 0.5 — also the best in the league. Why? Well, one reason is that San Francisco has plenty