WNBA playoffs 2025: Semifinals preview and predictions - ESPN

The New York Liberty won't have a chance to defend their WNBA championship. The Phoenix Mercury eliminated the fifth-seeded Liberty on Friday to advance to the 2025 WNBA semifinals.

After losing at home in the opener of their first-round series, the No. 4 seed Mercury beat the Liberty in Games 2 and 3 and now face the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in Game 1 of the semifinals on Sunday (ESPN, 5 p.m. ET).

Phoenix's Alyssa Thomas had one of her signature triple-doubles — her ninth of the season — in Friday's 79-73 victory.

On the other side of the bracket, the No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces host the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever in Game 1 of their semifinal series on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ABC).

Las Vegas and Indiana advanced on game-winning shots in the final 12 seconds in their winner-take-all games Thursday.

Before the semifinals — which will feature four of the five MVP finalists — open, we break down each matchup and predict which teams will reach the WNBA Finals.

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Minnesota-Phoenix | Las Vegas-Indiana

Regular-season series: Minnesota went 3-1 against Phoenix

May 30: Lynx 74, Mercury 71 (at Phoenix)

June 3: Lynx 88, Mercury 65 (at Minnesota)

July 9: Mercury 79, Lynx 71 (at Phoenix)

July 16: Lynx 79, Mercury 66 (at Minnesota)

BPI: Minnesota has a 89.3% chance of advancing to the WNBA Finals, 72.5% chance of winning the WNBA title; Phoenix has a 10.7% chance to reach the Finals, 3.0% to win the championship.

First round: The Lynx were the only one of the top-four seeds to sweep their opening series, but they almost got pushed to a Game 3, too. After a 101-72 win in Game 1 at Minneapolis last Sunday, the Lynx edged the Golden State Valkyries 75-74 in Game 2 on Wednesday in San Jose, California.

The Mercury fell 76-69 in