Why winning toss of coin still necessary in Test matches

Traditional wisdom, statistics indicate batting 1st gives team advantage, but fluctuations over years

Jon Pike

One of cricket’s most famous characters was W. G. Grace, who played between 1865 and 1908.

At some point in his career, he said: “When I win the toss on a good pitch, I bat. When I win the toss on a doubtful pitch, I think about it a bit and then I bat. When I win the toss on a very bad pitch, I think about it a bit longer and then I bat.”

Since the first Test in 1877, Grace’s adage has been followed by many Test match captains, founded on the belief that batting first carries an advantage. On 72 percent of occasions when the home team captain has won the toss in a men’s Test match he has elected to bat.

Based on an analysis of 2,502 men’s Tests played up to April 16 this year, the side winning the toss and batting first won 42 percent of matches and lost 31 percent. The side which lost the toss won 32 percent of matches, compared with losing 37 percent.

This suggests that winning the toss provides a small, but often significant, boost to a team’s chances of winning a Test.

Over almost half a century of Test cricket the belief in batting first has held some verity. However, closer examination reveals some fluctuation over time.

Most pitches deteriorate in condition over the course of five days, especially if rain-affected and, almost certainly, through wear and tear. This was even more the case in the era of uncovered pitches that ended in 1979 for Test cricket.

Between 1887 and 1980, captains who won the toss elected to bat almost nine times out of 10. The side which won the toss won 36 percent of matches and lost 28 percent, slightly lower than between 1877 and 2023.

Covered pitches brought about