Why betting on Aaron Judge to win AL MVP is actually a bad idea - ESPN

As of the morning of Friday May 16, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees is leading the American League in all three Triple Crown categories, with a .412 batting average, 15 home runs and 41 RBI. In terms of fantasy baseball, he sits at No. 1 in both total fantasy points scored as well as on the ESPN Player Rater (representing value in category-based leagues).

He also plays for the only team in the AL East over .500 and we know that when it comes to MVP arguments, players on teams that make the playoffs are often looked at more favorably. Yet, despite all of this, betting on Judge to win the AL's MVP award might not make a ton of sense.

Note: Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

David Purdum: Judge's odds to be the AL MVP reached -1,000 this week at ESPN BET, making the Yankees slugger an overwhelming favorite for this early in the season. By comparison, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the MVP favorite in the National League at +185.

Going back to the American League, Bobby Witt Jr. is the second-favorite at 12-1. No other player has shorter MVP odds than 60-1. Judge's MVP odds have shortened significantly during his prolific start. After opening the season around 3-1, he entered May at -600, the shortest MVP favorite at this point of the season in at least the last five years, according to ESPN Research.

Judge's pricey odds have caused bettors to pause, before risking, for example, $1,000 to win just $100. At BetMGM sportsbooks, four players (Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Mike Trout and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) had attracted more MVP action than Judge. One sportsbook told ESPN that the action on Judge to win MVP has been «not so bad, since he's been a big favorite from the