What will happen to Turkey's EU migrant deal if the opposition wins the election?

Turkey is counting down to elections on 14 May, with the economy the single most important issue for voters. 

But the migrant crisis is also seen as critical -- not just for the public, but for the political parties vying for power. 

The last decade has witnessed a wave of arrivals with people fleeing the war in Syria. Many passed through Turkey and went on to Europe, but millions remained in the first point of safety. 

Some surveys show that as the number of foreigners has increased, so has anti-migrant sentiment. 

That has meant immigration issues are a hot election subject, which could have implications for the EU as well.

The opposition 'National Alliance' bloc is hoping to gain votes by pledging to send two million Syrians back to their homeland within two years. According to official figures, Turkey hosts 3,447,837 Syrian refugees registered under temporary protection as of March 2023.

Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, facing harsh criticism for his migration policy from his own supporters, has tried to keep one foot in each camp. 

Last year, he reiterated that his government was working on a return scheme to send one million Syrians back to their homeland on a voluntary basis. A few days later he also said "we will never expel them from this land. Our door is wide open. We'll continue to host them and not throw them into the lap of murderers."

Five months before the election, Erdogan announced more than half a million Syrians returned to northern Syria and he added "voluntary return of Syrians back to their homes is accelerating". 

Migrants have become a bargaining tool between Ankara and the European Union too. 

In 2016, both parties reached a deal on the readmission of persons residing without authorisation,