Week 9 NFL best bets, analysis, game picks and props - ESPN

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: Find betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 9.

From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. Let's get into it.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's favorite bets
Solak's plays | Walder's props
Clay's TD projections

Heading into the Week 9 Sunday slate, I'm going to start with the late-window Packers-Patriots matchup in New England, giving you my pick for the game. I have some thoughts there on the Green Bay defense based on what it is showing on the tape. Plus, I have a couple more game picks to look at — including a two-team teaser — and I'll throw down some props, too.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
4:25 p.m. ET on Fox; Line: NE -3.5, O/U: 45.5

I'll start with the Packers' defense under coordinator Jonathan Gannon. This unit is playing its best football of the season, allowing 14.8 PPG over the past four while giving up just 4.5 yards per play. The Packers are taking the ball away, too, recording 11 turnovers in this four-game