Week 10 NFL best bets, analysis, game picks and props - ESPN

Wek 10 of the NFL season is already upon us. We've looked at the games, the odds and available props in hopes of trying to find the best value for bets.

Ben Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Seth Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Matt Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. Let's get into it.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's favorite bets
Solak's plays | Walder's props
Clay's TD projections

We'll start with our game pick this week with the Chiefs-Falcons matchup in Atlanta. Plus, I have multiple teasers for the Week 10 slate, and I'll add a player prop on a wide receiver who is creating explosive plays at a high rate.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
1 p.m. ET on CBS; Line: KC -3, O/U: 46.5

The Chiefs added wide receiver Josh Downs at the trade deadline, giving Patrick Mahomes a slot target who can create numbers after the catch. The foot quickness is there to uncover. But I like the Chiefs to cover as a road favorite because of the run game with Kenneth Walker III and Steve Spagnuolo's defense. Walker is a difference-maker in Andy Reid's offense, averaging 23.1 touches and 130.5 scrimmage yards. He'll find daylight against an Atlanta defense giving up 4.4 yards per carry (22nd in the league), and Reid can use the heavy run action to influence linebackers on play-action concepts. Defensively,