Week 6 best bets: How to bet Ohio State-Minnesota, Duke-Cal and more - ESPN

If you're here for fireworks and shootouts, you might not like this card. Week 6 of the college football season, for me, isn't about chaos or points flying across the screen. Rather, it's about patience, trenches and trusting the numbers when they say «slow.»

I've got nothing but unders and one ground-and-pound favorite that chews up clock like it's a hobby. Ugly football might not trend on social media, but it can still make your bankroll smile… and this card has slugfests written all over it.

This week, give me punts, missed field goals and turnovers on downs.

All odds by ESPN BET

Pick: UNDER 56.5

This total feels inflated based on what could happen rather than what's most likely. Duke's offense is explosive and balanced, but this game projects more like a slow, deliberate chess match than a track meet.

Both teams sit in the bottom half in plays per game and prefer slower, more controlled football. That slower tempo alone can keep a total under unless both sides suddenly find elite efficiency. Duke might rank in the top 25 in total offense for yardage, but nearly a third of its touchdowns came in Week 0 against Elon. Plus, the Blue Devils will have to work harder against Cal's secondary, which grades as top three in PFF, built to limit explosive plays and force long, time-consuming drives.

Cal, meanwhile, just isn't wired for shootouts. The Bears rank bottom 30 in offensive EPA and remain a negative EPA/pass team, which means efficiency or explosiveness simply isn't there. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele completes only 40% of his deep shots, and lead back Kendrick Raphael has just nine runs of 10-plus yards all season, four of which came against Texas Southern.

This is shaping up to be a turtle race, not a sprint. Duke