Week 4 NFL picks - Evaluating Bills-Ravens, the Bears offense, props and more - ESPN

Welcome to Week 4. We have a few undefeated teams left, a few winless teams left and a whole bunch of 2-1 and 1-2 teams that… might be good? I can't remember a September with more perceived parity in the NFL. Fun to watch, fun to break down — hard to predict.

I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each — and a few more lines and props I'm targeting that you'll find at the bottom of the page.

All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.

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Week 3 recap | Bills-Ravens | Rams-Bears | Eagles-Buccaneers | Quick hits and SGP

A better week than Week 2, but still a bad week — and far more frustrating. Kirk Cousins went over his passing total on the last completion of the game (after consecutive three-and-outs from the Chiefs to give him more opportunities), and Brock Bowers missed our parlay by four yards. We had a bounce-back week in sight, but it just broke wrong at the end.

It has been a wild betting year. Of the 12 underdogs of at least six points to start the season, seven have won outright. It's the second-worst start for the public in the past two decades. We should expect things to normalize over time. But still, painful to see.

Week 3: 4-7 (-2.68 units)

Overall: 11-20 (-7.38u)
Spread: 2-4 (-2.1u)
Total: 3-3 (-0.31u)
Props: 6-10 (-4.38u)
Same-game parlay: 0-3 (-0.6u)

If you thought the Josh Allen hype was wild after a Week 3 drubbing of the listless Jacksonville Jaguars, wait and see what happens if Allen goes thermonuclear in Week 4 against the Ravens.

The potential for an Allen explosion is sky high because the Ravens are a pass-funnel defense. They have the best run defense in the league by success rate and second-best by