Week 18 betting: Back Lawrence, Cowboys-Giants to play lights out - ESPN

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space — find value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let's dive in to Week 18.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -2.5 (-117)

Bowen: I expect a heavy run approach from Ben Johnson's team here versus a Detroit defense that is surrendering 5.9 YPC over its past four games. And the Bears are playing to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Let's take Chicago to cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-108) vs. Cleveland Browns

Solak: The quietest storyline of December is the improvement of the Bengals' defense. Since Week 10, the Bengals' defense is 11th in success rate and 16th in EPA per play — totally average! It is still surrendering a preposterous number of explosive plays, which is the only way the Browns' offense can succeed. But without rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr., who is unlikely to go with the groin injury he reaggravated in Week