UFC 321 experts' picks and best bets: Is anyone taking Ciryl Gane to upset Tom Aspinall? - ESPN

Heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall will finally make his anticipated return to the Octagon against former interim champion Ciryl Gane on Saturday in Abu Dhabi (2 p.m. ET on ESPN PPV, prelims at 10 a.m.).

In just eight UFC fights, Aspinall has distinguished himself among heavyweights for his quick work. He owns the UFC record for shortest average fight time at 2 minutes, 2 seconds. He has also won every one of his professional MMA fights by stoppage. He is taking on the fourth-most-accurate heavyweight in UFC history in Gane (61.3% significant strike accuracy), who is on a two-win streak.

A new champion is guaranteed to be crowned in the co-main event between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern for the vacant strawweight championship. Jandiroba, ESPN's No. 2-ranked strawweight, enters the weekend on the longest winning streak in the division at five matches. No. 6-ranked Dern is hoping for a repeat of UFC 256 five years ago, when she defeated Jandiroba by unanimous decision.

ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their UFC title fight predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on both fight cards.

I think this fight will look a lot like Gane's loss to Jon Jones in 2023, to be honest. It just probably won't end as quickly as that submission two minutes into the first round. The fight will last as long as it takes Aspinall to get Gane down. Gane has power, and I'm not saying he doesn't have a chance. You always have a chance with that kind of power. But he doesn't really one-hit-quit people early on in fights. Tom is patient, and he'll find his opening. — Anthony Smith

I think it will be relatively close for the first two rounds, with a lot of reading and setting traps