College Football Week 11 best bets: Finding value in ugly football and comfort in chaos - ESPN

Three weeks left of college football should be fun. How do you make sense of a weekend slate where offense looks optional in one matchup, the red zone turns into quicksand in another and two teams decide defense is more of a suggestion than a requirement?

Just lean into the late-season chaos.

From a «leave the popcorn» rock fight, to a field-goal festival disguised as football, then to a game where scoreboards might need load management, we're going where the market overreacts and the numbers tell the truth.

This late in the season, we're finding value in the ugly, the stubborn and the downright electric.

All odds by ESPN BET

Pick: UNDER 41.5 (-115)

Don't overcomplicate it. This is not Drake Maye versus Tanner McKee. Instead, this matchup features two offenses stuck in the mud with no explosiveness, no rhythm and no real margin for error.

The profile of both squads is about moving the ball in inches, not chunks, and every first down feels like an eight-play negotiation. The result? Both the Cardinal and Tar Heels are bottom-10 in yards per play.

Now shrink the field — inside the red zone, it gets even worse. Stanford has scored touchdowns on just 13 of 28 trips, while UNC has 12 touchdowns on 24 attempts. That's coin-flip touchdown probability any time either gets inside the 20. And when the strengths of both defenses show up — UNC's tackling, Stanford's situational grit — finishing drives becomes a luxury.

When betting an UNDER, you look for teams to stall. Well, both offenses already do that organically. You just need them to be who they already are: inefficient, conservative and allergic to touchdowns.

Pick: UNDER 51.5 (-110)

There's two data points that jump off the page to validate the under: red zone efficiency