Three things to watch, with betting tips, as Nuggets try to close out Heat

DENVER — This feels like it could be a coronation. The Nuggets clearly have been the better team this series, Nikola Jokić has been the best player on the floor (if not in the world), and the Heat are struggling to find answers.

Then there is the math. Only one team in NBA history came from 3-1 down in the NBA Finals to win the series, and that team had LeBron James at his peak and a series of breaks going their way.

Miami’s task may be harder, starting with the fact Denver doesn’t shoot itself in the foot. Of course, these gritty Heat love just this kind of challenge.

“[We} Love playing in these kind of environments where the crowd is going to be great tomorrow,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “Everybody is counting us out. We’re used to that. But ultimately it has to be decided between those four lines. The crowd is not going to decide it. The narratives are not going to decide it. Whatever the analytics are about 3-1, that ain’t going to decide it. It’s going to be decided between those four lines, whose game can get to whose game and ultimately win at the end. That’s what our guys love. So we’re looking forward to it.”

At this point in the series, there are few secrets. This is about game plan discipline and execution. Denver has been better at that in the last two games.

Here are two factors worth watching, plus some betting advice from Vaughn Dalzell of NBC Sports Edge.

In Los Angeles before Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals — when the Nuggets were up 3-0 — they were not a team acting like they had games in their pocket. They could have dropped Game 4 and closed the series out in Game 5 at home, nobody would have blinked.

That’s not what happened. The Nuggets were business-like in closing out the Lakers. It