2023 NBA Finals - Odds, picks, betting tips for Heat-Nuggets Game 5 - ESPN

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Game 5 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

The Denver Nuggets return home Monday evening with a chance to secure the franchise's first NBA title. After sweeping the Miami Heat in South Florida, the Nuggets sit as sizable favorites for Game 5. Such a position makes sense given Denver is 9-1 straight up and 6-4 against the spread at home during this playoff run.

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Miami relies on Bam Adebayo's steady production in the paint. The versatile center offers nice value in DFS lineups and as a target for scoring and double-double props. Denver, meanwhile, has done well in slowing Jimmy Butler in clutch time during this series, but his scoring over is back in play in a must-win spot that should invite increased usage. My model digs Kyle Lowry as a complementary scorer and playmaker.

We know Nikola Jokic is the offensive engine for Denver, but Jamal Murray has also elevated his playmaking this postseason, averaging 7.1 dimes during the playoffs and while becoming the first player with at least 10 assists in each of his first four Finals games. Sticking with Murray in lineups and for offensive props is a reasonable plan for a game with such leverage.

— Jim McCormick

Denver Nuggets at Miami HeatGame 5: 8:30 p.m. ET, Nuggets lead series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread) Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1) Heat: 44-38