The NHL is experiencing an offensive renaissance

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A few weeks ago, we observed some significant weakness in goaltending performance across the National Hockey League.

The findings were myriad – backup goaltenders were playing proportionally more, typically elite netminders had seen sharp drawdowns in performance, and so on. And, when goaltending weakens, scoring naturally increases.

But in the modern era of hockey, defence and goaltending have generally won the day. Most scoring outbursts across the league are short-lived, and doubly so as the regular season comes to a close. One of the most predictable in-season trends, in fact, is that scoring decreases as the hockey calendar inches towards the playoffs.

But not this year. This season we are seeing divergence, with scoring continuing to rip to the upside. Don’t just take my word for it. Look at this extraordinary graph from the start of the 2021-22 regular season through the first weekend in April. (Note: I included expected goal rates as well to show this isn’t just short-term shooting percentage-driven.)

April’s data may be muddied a bit by a smaller sample of games played, but it’s indicative of a broader six-month uptrend for the league, one that’s seen recent historical averages beaten by comfortable margins each month. Again, goaltending could be driving the bus here: platoon and backup options playing more in a relatively more compressed schedule with clustered games is a recipe for higher scoring.

But that doesn’t explain why elite goaltenders we have watched for years, like Anaheim’s John Gibson and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (as just two examples), have also seen save percentage regression. Anyone can underperform in a given season, but it’s curious that the majority of returning starting