The All Blacks' decline: a terminal tailspin or curious blip?

Last year proved to be historic for the All Blacks and not in a good way: three Test defeats was their worst run of form since 2009.

Most nations, of course, would consider 12 Test wins out of 15 in a year to be a triumph, but the All Blacks operate to different standards. As they prepare to meet an Ireland side who harbour genuine World Cup ambitions, and with head coach Ian Foster, his assistants John Plumtree and Scott Macleod plus potential starting centres David Havili and Jack Goodhue all testing positive for Covid this week, New Zealand's mood threatens to be as dark as their shirts. 

So, is the decline terminal? Foster, speaking after the 40-25 defeat to a blossoming French side last November, pointed out that Australia and South Africa also suffered multiple defeats in 2021. He also stressed that New Zealand had spent a draining 12 weeks on tour before that trip to Paris.

And yet there has always been a slight sense of uncertainty about the All Blacks under Foster. They may be scoring more tries in this World Cup cycle - 5.86 per game to 5.13, slightly skewed by beating Tonga 101-0 and scoring 60 points against Fiji in back-to-back Tests - but the All Blacks' carries, line breaks and offloads are all down.

In total, they have lost five out of 21 Tests since Foster succeeded Steve Hansen. During the previous Rugby World Cup cycle - excluding the World Cup itself - they lost six out of 47; going back to 2011-15, again excluding the World Cup, it was three out of 47. They are numbers which help explain why doubts are creeping in. 

The continued success of Scott Robertson at the Crusaders hasn’t helped Foster’s cause. When Foster was appointed Robertson had already revived the Crusaders and won three Super Rugby