Sportsbooks brace for NFL Draft betting: 'It’s an impossible task'

For sportsbook operators, NFL Draft odds rank right up there with root canals. That’s because, unlike week-to-week betting on NFL games, the draft odds market is dominated by sharp bettors.

To put it succinctly, Bookmakers often take a bath on the NFL Draft. 

Derek Stevens has seen it firsthand as he oversees Circa Sports, which operates in several states as part of Stevens’ gaming portfolio.

"I have emotions on both ends of the spectrum. No. 1, as a football fan, I absolutely love the NFL Draft," Stevens said. "But more recently, since we’ve gotten into the sports betting arena, I’ve come to dread it."

Stevens and Circa Sports risk manager Dylan Sullivan help dive into NFL Draft odds ahead of Thursday night’s first-round festivities.

An Impossible Task

In an NFL game, no matter the circumstances prior to kickoff, the outcome is still decided on the field. Underdogs can overcome. A team missing a key player still has a chance to win.

But with the NFL Draft, there’s no game to play. Rather, it’s a duel for information between bookmakers and bettors. 

And the bettors — predominantly professionals — have been winning that duel for several years.

"There’s so much information," Stevens said. "It’s an impossible task for our risk room to be successful at it. There are such wild odds swings."

Jayden or Drake?

A perfect example of those wild odds swings is the first prop bet listed on Circa’s NFL Draft odds board: Between Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, which player will be taken first?

The prop is basically a bet on who will go No. 2 overall in the NFL Draft. It’s a foregone conclusion that USC QB Caleb Williams will go No. 1 to the Chicago Bears. It’s so foregone, in fact, that Circa Sports doesn’t even have a No. 1 overall