Spain favorites to win World Cup, Goldman model shows

SANTIAGO, May 29 : Spain are the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, ahead of France, Argentina and Brazil, according to a Goldman Sachs model published on Friday that uses teams' historical performance and ranking data.

The model gives Spain a 26 per cent chance of lifting the trophy at the tournament, which will be held in the United States, Mexico and Canada from June 11 to July 19. 

• France were next on 19 per cent, followed by reigning champions Argentina on 14 per cent, Brazil on 8 per cent and England on 5 per cent, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

• The bank said its forecast is based mainly on teams' Elo ratings, a performance-ranking system originally devised for chess and adapted for football, along with additional factors including attacking talent, recent momentum, mentality and geography.

• "Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition," Goldman Sachs said.

• Argentina's chances were reduced by what the bank called a "winner's slump" effect, or the tendency of defending champions to underperform at the following World Cup.

• France's odds were hurt by the likelihood of facing top-ranked Spain in the semi-finals, while England was marked down because of what Goldman described as a history of tournament underperformance, geographical headwinds and a slightly unfavorable draw.

• Goldman said its projections were broadly in line with bookmakers' odds, though it assigned England a lower probability of winning than betting markets did.

• The bank said its model simulates match outcomes using nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches since 1978 and would be updated after each day of play during the tournament.