Serendipity of De Zerbi and Brighton underlines football’s great complexities

I magine that Thomas Tuchel had not been sacked by Chelsea at the beginning of September and that Graham Potter had not been lured from Brighton to replace him. Potter, presumably, would still be in charge at the Amex. Would Brighton’s situation now be better or worse? Would they be heading into Sunday’s game against Southampton sixth in the Premier League table and likely to qualify for the Europa League?

Brighton had begun this season well, taking 13 points from the first six games – which, of course, is why Potter was appointed by Chelsea. Would Todd Boehly and Behdad Eghbali have been drawn by his years of steady progress culminating in last season’s ninth-place finish? It seems unlikely. It is indicative of how large a part chance plays that had Boehly realised at the end of last season that Tuchel was not the man for him, the obvious candidate to take over would have been Brendan Rodgers.

Perhaps Potter would have been able to maintain that start. It is implausible he would have been able to maintain that 2.17 points per game average, but if you combine that with last season, he was going at 1.45 points per game. Roberto De Zerbi’s 29 games this season have yielded 1.55. It may be that with the changes in personnel over the summer, Potter would have matched that over the course of the season.

But the sense remains that De Zerbi has taken Brighton to a new level, that they are now a side who can go to the Emirates, play without fear and come away with a 3-0 win. Certainly he has made them more exciting.

It may be that Potter would have evolved and Brighton enjoyed success had he stayed. But it may also be that to play as they have this season, to reach these heights of performance, they needed to replace Potter,