Real Madrid, Chelsea and statistical shoo-ins

Chelsea have had some great teams throughout the years, ever since the club was founded in 2003. But weirdly, neither of their two sides that landed Big Cup were, comparatively speaking, a particularly great vintage. The Fiver still has no idea how that first Mourinho team didn’t win the competition at least twice, for example, and it’s too simplistic to just blame Rafa Benítez and John Terry. Anyway, that’s not really the point, which is, they’re not that brilliant now either – Brentford, innit – and so The Fiver had assumed No 3 was a slam-dunk into the bag this year. But right now things aren’t looking so good. Huh? What gives?

Real Madrid is what gives. Madrid are the kings of Big Cup, with a lineage stretching from the days of Ferenc Puskás and Alfredo Di Stéfano to modern heroes such as cellular communication enthusiast Cristiano Ronaldo and Scottie Scheffler wannabe Gareth Bale. They’re past masters at getting the job done, and their route to yet another semi-final appearance looks rather-more-than-semi-assured after last week’s saunter up and down the King’s Rahd. Madrid have a 94.44% success rate when winning the first leg away in Europe, you see, while Chelsea’s win percentage after losing the opening skirmish at home is a whopping zero. Disappointment appears a statistical shoo-in, then, not that any of us needed a calculator to be aware that misery is inevitably coming down the track in one shape or another anyway.

But there is hope! While Los Merengues have only lost two of the 36 ties in which they’ve first secured an away win, they did make an awful sticky, crumbly, eggy mess of the bed just three years ago, when Ajax rocked up at the Bernabéu and put four past them to end their three-year run as Big Cup