Prediction market Kalshi self-certifies trading on transfer portal - ESPN

Prediction market Kalshi notified a federal regulator on Wednesday that it was self-certifying markets on whether college athletes will enter the transfer portal, and while the company says it has no immediate plans to begin offering trading on the portal, the decision still drew sharp criticism from the NCAA.

In a filing submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi wrote that contracts on the transfer portal will initially be listed Dec. 17, 2025, and that it intends to list such markets daily. Transfer portal markets were not appearing on the site as of 8 p.m. ET Wednesday.

«We certify markets all the time that we do not end up listing,» a Kalshi company spokesperson told ESPN.

According to Kalshi's filing, the markets will include NCAA Division I football and basketball players and will be settled when a player publicly announces their intent to enter the transfer portal or officially enters the transfer portal. Statements on social media from players or announcements from agents or athletic departments constitute valid announcements, according to the filing.

It's the latest provocative move by Kalshi, which has emerged as a leading prediction market exchange, while also fighting multiple legal battles with state gambling regulators and pushback from some sports leagues.

«The NCAA vehemently opposes college sports prediction markets,» NCAA president Charlie Baker said in a statement to ESPN. «It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status. This is absolutely unacceptable and would place even greater pressure on student-athletes while threatening competition