Permutations: Republic of Ireland's unlikely path to a play-off spot

As last month's international window came to an end, Republic of Ireland manager Stephen Kenny admitted that any hopes of a backdoor play-off route to Euro 2024 was "more unlikely than likely".

That of course had nothing to do with the standings in a Group B from which France have already qualified automatically. The Netherlands, who are Ireland's final group opponents this Saturday, are in pole position to also progress to the finals in Germany.

Ireland, meanwhile, will be settling for fourth. But to repurpose an old Steve Staunton phrase and give it a different twist, the qualifying group is a case of 'third place, fourth place, whatever'. If it's not a top-two finish, placings below that are essentially meaningless in the grand scheme of things because ultimately, the most recent UEFA Nations League is the only arbiter to determine the fates of teams that require a play-off to get to next summer's Euros.

But sub-optimal results in that competition last year have left Ireland ranked 26th overall with an increasingly miniscule chance of sneaking into the play-offs, especially with other League B teams like Finland and Bosnia already guaranteed some of the few available play-off spots.

The Boys in Green are relying on an unlikely set of results in other groups for that pathway to open.

Wednesday night's 1-1 draw between Israel and Switzerland in Hungary would have been of interest to Irish supporters as Group I is one of the cards that needs to fall Ireland's way.

Switzerland have now gone top of that group and are on course to qualify automatically. For Ireland to have any chance of getting into the play-offs, both the Swiss and Israel would have to finish above Romania.

That's because Israel, a fellow League B side, are