NFL wild card last-minute bets - best values on props, picks and more - ESPN

If I'm placing bets on a weekend, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into this weekend's props.

Let's start with defense, since that's where we've had success this year.

Odds by ESPN BET.

Kobie Turner (LAR) under 0.5 sacks (-200 at ESPN BET)

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Turner earned 9.0 sacks and has an outside shot at Defensive Rookie of the Year, but beyond that there's a lot working against him here:

He's playing against Jared Goff, whose 4.7% sack rate is third-lowest in the league.

He plays defensive tackle and his pass rush win rate is above average but not exceptional at 12%.

The Rams are underdogs, which cuts into the number of sack opportunities.

I'm probably underrating him a little bit at -353 because he's playing more than he did earlier in the season, but I still feel directionally confident on the under.

Chris Jones (K.C.) under 0.5 sacks (-115)

Jones is on a hot streak, no doubt about it, with a sack in each of his past three games. But as we've written all year, sacks are not just about the player rushing the passer — but also the passer themselves. No quarterback gets rid of the ball faster on average than Tua Tagovailoa — in 2.36 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats — and his 4.8% sack rate is the fifth-lowest among QBs. My model makes the under here -153.

See also:

Ogbo Okoronkwo (CLE) over 0.5 sacks (+210)

Christian Wilkins