If I'm placing bets on a weekend, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.
So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into this weekend's props.
Let's start with defense, since that's where we've had success this year.
Odds by ESPN BET.
Nick Bosa (SF) under 0.5 sacks (+110).
Can you guess when the last time Bosa recorded a sack was? What if I told you, it was all the way back on Dec. 17. Granted this is Nick Bosa — we know what he's capable of — but this is going to be a tough game for him to break his cold streak. He will be facing first-team All-Pro Penei Sewell and trying to sack Jared Goff, who has the fifth-lowest sack rate in the NFL this season (4.9%). I make the under -126.
Justin Madubuike (BAL) under 0.5 sacks (-190).
We hit on this under last week and I'm going back to the well because Madubuike continues to be overpriced off his 13.0-sack season. His 8% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle remains below average for the position and on Sunday he's trying to bring down Patrick Mahomes — one of the most sack-elusive quarterbacks in the league. My model has Madubuike's under at -379, miles away from this line.
See also:
Odafe Oweh (BAL) over 0.5 sacks (+325)
Arik Armstead (SF) under 0.5 sacks (-175)
Aidan Hutchinson (DET) under 0.5 sacks (-110)
Note that some bets are tackles + assists and others are just tackles or assists.
Derrick Barnes (DET) over 4.5 tackles + assists (-130)
The 49ers are 7-point favorites and odds are this
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